Sunshine in Sierra Melt Hopes for a Wet Winter

by Mark Grossi
The Fresno Bee - February 4, 2003

Above the San Joaquin Valley fog, the sun shone warm and inviting in the high Sierra most of January and that's somehow bad.

It's the most telling sign of a complete El Niño flop last month when several winter storms apparently bypassed California. The Sierra snowpack that seemed burly Jan. 1 is suddenly less than robust.

El Niño, the Pacific Ocean warming trend that can influence wet storms to smack California, was a disappointing dud in January. Fresno, for instance, had its lowest January rainfall| total in a dozen years.

Before January, the Sierra snowpack near Fresno was 150% of average. Now it has plummeted below 90% of average. And it drops each day that the sun keeps shining up there.

The snowpack isn't melting away; it's still about the same size as it was in late December. But it should have grown much bigger by now.

"This is our prime snow gathering time," said Randy McFarland, spokesman for the Kings River Water Association, which distributes water to 1.1 million acres of farmland in Fresno, Kings and Tulare counties. "Each day that passes without a storm makes it harder to catch up."

Farmers, industries, cities and hydroelectric power producers count on snowmelt to fill reservoirs for summer. More than half of California's summer water supply comes from the high Sierra. So a smaller snowpack means less water.

Many people dread the trend they're seeing now.

"We have had very few Januarys like this one," said hydrologist Steve Gilfoy of Southern California Edison, which has hydro power plants on the San Joaquin River, east of Fresno. "We still have February and March, but the trend is [looking] dry."

The National Weather Service agrees. Meteorologist Mike Sowko said he doesn't see any storms headed this way.

Expect patchy fog in the Valley, and mostly sunny, balmy days in the Sierra.

"There's really nothing in our extended forecasts," Sowko said. "There's just no moisture coming in."

Long range forecasters are seeing similar patterns, though it's not what they thought in December. They projected above normal precipitation for January.

Why? A string of storms, powered by heat energy from El Niño, had dumped heavy rainfall in many parts of California during November and December. A familiar, wet pattern had been established a virtual storm pipeline in some years.

In early January, forecasters were surprised when a ridge of high pressure, or a dome of stable air, moved into the West and began bouncing storms north of California.

At the same time, a depression or trough formed in the East, so Arctic air and storms started sliding toward the trough and into the Midwest and East

"One of those cold air surges ot all the way to Florida last week," said meteorologist Bill Mork of the California Department of Water Resources. "It snowed 24 times in 28 days in Pittsburgh."

That scenario is more like La Niña, which is the cool water verion of El Niño, Mork said. This happens sometimes when the ocean water doesn't warm up very much. It is called a "moderate" El Niño.

The capricious turn has left some dry California numbers in its wake. For instance, Huntington Lake, at about 7,000 feet east of Fresno, received 0.52 inches of precipitation in January. Usually, Huntington records 7.50 inches during the month.

In the mountains around the north fork of the Kings River, Pacific Gas & Electric Co. hydrologists found the snow's water content averaging 19.2 inches or 77.5% of average for Feb. 1.

Water content equates to the amount of water that would accumulate if the snow melted right now.

Rangewide, the Sierra snowpack is about normal for this time of year. The northern Sierra, which continues to receive some precipitation, is raising the overall average because it is 127% of average.

But snow meadows to the south have had little more than a dusting in the past month. The central Sierra is 98% of average, and the southern Sierra is 89% of average.

The dramatic difference in one month: On Jan. 1, the central region was at 153%, and the southern region was 149%.

"I thought it was going to be a big winter," said PG&E hydrologist Henry French.

"Normally, the snow is real fluffy at this time of year. But it's wetter and more packed down. Unless it cools down, it will be ready to run off quicker when it starts melting."