Summer May Be Dry

Weak rain and snow could put a strain on the valley's farms.

by Mark Grossi
The Fresno Bee, March 3, 2002

More rain fell in Fresno during the last week of December than in January and February combined -- a symptom of a problem that could haunt Central California this summer.

For reasons nobody fully understands, the conveyor belt of Pacific storms this year moved north in January, shutting off the spigot for Central Californians and the important Southern Sierra snowpack.

Although the current postcard weather is nice for starting a tan, farm water managers, hydroelectric power companies and other industries in Central California want more snow and less pleasant weather.

Their reason: The snowpack supplies water for hydro operations as well as millions of farmland acres during the summer. Two months ago, the snowpack was rated at more than 100% of average. Now it's 78% and shrinking.
Nobody is panicking, but there's no celebration either.

"A couple of big storms would help," said water master Tim O'Halloran of the Kings River Water Association, which distributes water to 1.1 million acres of farmland in Fresno, Kings and Tulare counties. "Farmers are starting to call for water because it has been so dry."

The National Weather Service forecasts a storm might reach Central California late this week and break the spell of dry winter weather. But meteorologists say it's tough to know how much precipitation will come to this part of the state.

"This year, there's no definite Pacific Ocean signal, no El Nino, no La Nina," said meteorologist Gary Sanger in the Weather Service's Hanford office. "It's just a matter of where the storm track goes."

The track hasn't been here much for the last two months. Fresno had 0.76 of an inch of rain in January and 0.41 in February. According to 30-year averages, the two months' combined rainfall should be more than 4 inches. The city's rainfall total of 5.48 inches since July 1 is 72% of average.

But the real drama is east of Fresno in the high Sierra. For example, the water content in the snow is 75% of average at 11,450-foot Mono Pass, a place that sends snowmelt into the San Joaquin River.

Similarly, at Huntington Lake, elevation 7,000 feet, the snowpack is 76% of average. If the snow pack melted today, 14.1 inches of water would come out of the Huntington Lake area. On average, 18.8 inches should melt out of the area.

In the Kings River watershed, Pacific Gas & Electric Co., which has hydro projects on the river, found the water content is almost 85% at 9,900-foot Rattlesnake Creek. But a company crew measured only about 68% of average water content at 8,250-foot Helms Meadow.

Statewide, the 400-mile-long Sierra is at about 86% of average, largely because of near normal totals in the Sierra north of Lake Tahoe. North of Tahoe, the Sierra is 95% of average. From Tahoe to Yosemite National Park, the snowpack is 85% of average. From Yosemite south, it drops to 78%.

About 15,000 farmers with 1 million acres on the Valley's east side buy water from the Central Valley Project's Friant Division. Friant relies on the Southern Sierra snowpack in the San Joaquin River watershed.

The federal project on March 15 will update its estimate of how much water will be delivered this summer to farms and cities.

"The snowpack is so important to California, especially down in the Fresno area," said Gary Bardini, chief hydrology forecaster for the state Department of Water Resources in Sacramento. "Maybe 75% of the water in your area comes from the melting snowpack.